(deprecated) Returns the confidence interval limits of the conditional mean forecast.
Syntax
X is the univariate time series data (a one dimensional array of cells (e.g. rows or columns)).
Sigmas is the univariate time series data (a one dimensional array of cells (e.g. rows or columns)) of the last q realized volatilities.
Order is the time order in the data series (i.e. the first data point's corresponding date (earliest date=1 (default), latest date=0)).
Order  Description 

1  ascending (the first data point corresponds to the earliest date) (default) 
0  descending (the first data point corresponds to the latest date) 
mean is the GARCH model mean (i.e. mu).
alphas are the parameters of the ARCH(p) component model (starting with the lowest lag).
betas are the parameters of the GARCH(q) component model (starting with the lowest lag).
innovation is the probability distribution function of the innovations/residuals (1=Gaussian (default), 2=tDistribution, 3=GED).
value  Description 

1  Gaussian or Normal Distribution (default) 
2  Student's tDistribution 
3  Generalized Error Distribution (GED) 
Nu is the shape parameter (or degrees of freedom) of the innovations/residuals probability distribution function.
T is the forecast time/horizon (expressed in terms of steps beyond end of the time series).
alphalevel is the statistical significance level. If missing, a default of 5% is assumed.
upper If true, returns the upper confidence interval limit. Otherwise, returns lower limit.
upper  description 

0  return lower limit 
1  return upper limit 
Remarks
 The underlying model is described here.
 Warning: GARCH_FORECI() function is deprecated as of version 1.63: use GARCH_FORE function instead.
 The time series is homogeneous or equally spaced.
 The time series may include missing values (e.g. #N/A) at either end.
 The significance level (i.e. $\alpha$) must be greater than zero and less than one. Otherwise, a #VALUE! is returned
 The number of steps must be greater than zero. Otherwise, a #VALUE! is returned
Examples
Example 1:


Formula  Description (Result)  

=GARCH_FORE($B$2:$B$32,1,$D$3,$D$4:$D$5,$D$6,1)  Forecasted conditional mean at T+1 (0.160)  
=GARCH_FORECI($B$2:$B$32,1,$D$3,$D$4:$D$5,$D$6,,,1,5%,1)  Upper confidence interval for forecasted value at T+1 (1.798)  
=GARCH_FORECI($B$2:$B$32,1,$D$3,$D$4:$D$5,$D$6,,,1,5%,0)  Lower confidence interval for forecasted value at T+1 (2.118) 
Files Examples
References
 Hamilton, J .D.; Time Series Analysis , Princeton University Press (1994), ISBN 0691042896
 Tsay, Ruey S.; Analysis of Financial Time Series John Wiley & SONS. (2005), ISBN 0471690740
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