Beantwortet

Interpretation ADF-test results

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Dear all,

I could use some help with the correct interpretation of these ADF-test results on stationarity. Based on my time series I go results indicating 3x FALSE and 1x TRUE as well as 2x FALSE and 2x TRUE, see also the screenshot below. This leaves me wondering what prevails. Can I conclude that the time series are non-stationary or is the opposite the case. Please advice:).

Kommentare

  • Offizieller Kommentar

    Based on the output table, the time series exhibits a deterministic trend over time, so it is stationary with a deterministic trend.

    If you were to detrend the time series, the detrended time series is stationary.

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  • Thank you for the input Mohamad. However, these results were based on returns instead of log returns. In case of log returns I got slightly different outcomes, please see below. Is it still right to conclude that the time series are 'stationary with a deterministic trend and that no unit root is present'? Please advice.

     

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  • In the table above, the series is stationary even without a trend or constant, so you may conclude it is stationary (period). Whether log returns has a deterministic trend or not, it does not, as the 1st restrictive scenario (no constant) exhibits stationarity.

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  • Thank you

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