ARMA forecast in Excel

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Welcome to module 9 of the getting started series. In this video we'll demonstrate how to use NumXL to build a time series forecast in Excel. In previous videos who have specified an ARMA 1 1 model calibrated the values of the model coefficients and examined the residuals of the model's assumptions.

Let's begin with the forecast now. Select the cell at the top of the models table then click on the forecast icon in the NumXL toolbar.

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The forecast dialog pops up. For input data, select the most recent observations, in this case those are the last few cells in column B.

For the forecast horizon let's change the number of steps to 12. Leave the upper and lower limit option checked. We'll also leave the alpha value at 5%.

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Now we need to specify where the forecast output table will be displayed. Click OK.

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The forecast dialog printed in our worksheet. Let's create a graph for the forecasts along with its confidence interval.

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That is it for now, thank you for watching!