SARIMA Modeling

Seasonal ARIMA Modeling and forecast tutorial video

The SARIMA model is an extension of the ARIMA model, typically used in cases where we suspect a seasonal pattern in our data. The NumXL SARIMA Model Wizard automates the model construction steps: guessing initial parameters, parameters validation, goodness of fit testing and residuals diagnosis.

To use this functionality, select an empty cell where you wish the output model table displayed and locate the corresponding icon on the toolbar (or the menu item):
Select SARIMA in NumXL Toolbar

The SARIMA Model Wizard is now displayed. The output range is set to the current active cell in your worksheet. Now, reference the data sample on your worksheet and enter the different model orders.

SARIMA Model Wizard

In the "Options" section of the wizard, you may instruct the wizard to initialize the parameters values with a quick guess or with calibrated optimal values.

Finally, in the "Output" section, you may decide whether the wizard should generate the goodness-of-fit or the residuals diagnosis tables. By default, both options are checked. Now, click "OK".

Upon completion, the SARIMA Model Wizard displays the selected model's parameters and different statistical tests and/or calculations in the designated location of your worksheet.

SARIMA Model output table

Notes

  1. The SARIMA Wizard adds Excel-type of comments (red arrow heads) to the label cells to describe them.

 

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