Forecasting Performance

Forecasting process improvement begins with process measurement. There are dozens of available forecasting performance metrics. Some, like mean absolute percent error (MAPE), represent error as a percentage. Others, like mean absolute error (MAE), are scale dependent. Relative-error metrics (such as MASE) compare performance versus a benchmark (typically a naïve model). Each metric has its place—a situation where it is suitable to use and informative.

• SSE - Sum of Squared Errors
• MSE - Mean Squared Error
• GMSE – Geometric Mean Squared Error
• SAE - Sum of Absolute Errors
• MAE - Mean Absolute Error
• RMSE - Root Mean Squared Error
• RMSD - Root Mean Squared Deviations
• GRMSE – Geometric Root Mean Square Error
• MAPE - Mean Absolute Percentage Error
• MdAPE - Median Absolute Percentage Error
• MAAPE - Mean Arctangent Absolute Percentage Error
• MRAE – Mean Relative Absolute Error
• MdRAE - Median Relative Absolute Error
• GMRAE – Geometric Mean Relative Absolute Error
• MASE - Mean Absolute Scaled Error
• PB - Percentage Better
• MDA - Mean Directional Accuracy